The Russo-Ukrainian War and the Nuclear Proliferation

Abstract

Individual proliferators, the halted US-Russian arms-control negotiations, and the resulting dissatisfaction over stalled progress towards disarmament had all posed challenges to the global nuclear order in recent years. Then, under the guise of nuclear threats against NATO, Russia began a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine. This has neither rendered the international nuclear-governance framework ineffective, nor has it driven it to the brink of collapse. So far, the Russian invasions of Ukraine, first in February 2014 and then again in February 2022, have been fought solely with conventional weaponry. However, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has significant, multilayered nuclear undertones. It raises serious concerns about the dynamics of nuclear deterrence, the future of nuclear nonproliferation, arms control and disarmament, and international nuclear energy governance. In sum, the current conflict in Ukraine has serious consequences for the global nuclear order. The global nuclear order has been fraught with inherent tensions and paradoxes since the shocking advent of nuclear weapons into the international system in 1945. However, the conflict in Ukraine is worsening the global nuclear problem by intensifying existing dysfunctions. It has to be seen whether and how tensions are relieved, conflicts are resolved, and dysfunctions are mended. This research examines the inherent vulnerabilities of the global nuclear order, diagnose how the war in Ukraine might have exacerbated them, and open the way to the search for a cure.